Dubai_ Massader News
H.E. Mohammed Al Gergawi:
- Forecasting the future of the Arab world is the main priority of the Arab Strategy Forum
- The Arab Elite Forecasters aims to develop a cadre of 1,000 Arab Elite Forecasters
Highlights:
- The challenge will focus on the most prominent geopolitical and economic events during the year
- The challenge is geared to create a knowledge-based cadre capable of building the future of the Arab world
- Future of the US dollar and the Syrian conflict are some of the challenging questions facing the participants
- The winner in the challenge, awarded100,000 US Dollars, will participate annually in the Arab Strategy Forum, the region’s premiere geo-political and economic event.
The Arab Strategy Forum (ASF) has unveiled a unique challenge for Arab nationals to enter the Arab Elite Forecasters Challenge with the aim to develop the right analysis and future forecasts for the most prominent global and regional geopolitical and economic events in the coming year.
The Arab Elite Forecasters Challenge aims at cultivating a cadre of independent elite forecasters with superior qualitative forecasting skills, which will help the Arab world to prepare their countries to progress into the future.
The first 1000 participants to apply for the challenge will be provided with training on how to become better forecasters and will be required to submit forecasts leading up to the ASF, which will be held on 12 December 2017 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Following which, the top 10 forecasters will be selected and invited to attend the exclusive Arab Strategy Forum and will be honoured with an award in the presence of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai.
His Excellency Mohammed Al Gergawi, Chairman of the Arab Strategy Forum, stated on the launch of the Elite Forecasters Challenge, “The Arab Strategy Forum was launched in 2001 with the goal to support leaders through knowledge-sharing, debate and forecasting in order to make informed decisions in terms of the opportunities and risks facing the Arab world in the near future.”
The Arab Elite Forecasters Challenge is a collaboration between the Arab Strategy Forum and The Good Judgment Project, a landmark study, which was co-founded by Professor Philip Tetlock, the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania.
Professor Tetlock led the study on the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. He is also the best-selling co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
His Excellency Mohammed Al Gergawi added, “The challenge will develop a culture of structured analytical thinking and will assist the Arab world to identify nationals with superior qualitative forecasting skills, which will help their countries progress into the future.”
The top 10 winners will be joined by other forecasters to participate in advanced group forecasting and will also get training to refine and enhance their prediction capabilities.
Up to 150 of the highest-scoring participants will also be invited to an elite forecasting platform where they can further strengthen their forecasting skills and test their accuracy against Good Judgment’s Superforecasters, a highly exclusive group of individuals from around the world who have empirically verified superior skills in forecasting.
Professor Philip Tetlock welcomed the Arab Strategy Forum’s new challenge and said, “Forecasting is a skill that is worth cultivating and I commend the ASF for giving the Arab world an opportunity to test and improve their forecasting skills. I also look forward to seeing how the elite forecasters identified through this competition compare with the top forecasters described in Superforecasting(the book).”
To find out more and apply for the program, please visit http://goodjudgment.com/asfregister/
About Arab Strategy Forum
Since 2001, the Arab Strategy Forum has produced accurate annual forecasts of the major events of the year ahead under the directives and patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai. The Forum combines expert opinion, reliable data and informed analysis to facilitate the gathering of global expertise to predict forthcoming regional challenges and opportunities. Arab Strategy Forum brings together senior government officials from Arab nations and other regions of the world, as well as business leaders and influential academics.
The Arab Strategy Forum supports new thinking and cutting-edge research to equip the next generation of leaders throughout the Middle East as they prepare for future challenges.
About Good Judgment Inc
Good Judgment Inc is dedicated to helping clients apply evidence-based forecasting techniques for better decisions. Built on a path-breaking US-government sponsored research initiative under Professor Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania, Good Judgment achieved its forecasting success through relentless application of scientific methods to identify the key drivers of forecast accuracy. Our winning approach to forecasting is now available for commercial use.